Planetary Group Seminar: Radiation Belt Modeling and Forecasts: Limitations, Challenges and Future Needs (R. Friedel)

In the scientific community, the focus of space research and model development is on understanding the underlying physics and system science of the environment in question. This often leads to a good understanding of the system, while at the same time the models in question are incapable of predicting or modeling any actual state of the system with any accuracy. Using current, state-of the art diffusion codes for the Earth’s radiation belt I will argue that our main limitation no longer lies in the models themselves but rather in the specification of their boundary conditions and other required inputs. I will further argue that in Space Weather modeling and prediction we are neither committing sufficient resources to providing these inputs, nor are we performing the required research that can effectively provide these inputs for either now-casting or forecasting needs into the future.